The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Tourism Economics released a long-term view for post-Covid-19 passenger demand recovery which demonstrates that people remain eager to travel in the short and long-term.
Forecast highlights include:
- In 2021 global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 52 per cent of pre-Covid-19 levels (2019).
- In 2022 global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 88 per cent of pre-Covid-19 levels.
- In 2023 global passenger numbers are expected to surpass pre-Covid-19 levels (105 per cent).
- By 2030 global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion. That would be 7 per cent below the pre-Covid-19 forecast and an estimated loss of two to three years of growth due to Covid-19.
The recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres, which is expected to grow by an annual average of three per cent between 2019 and 2039. This is owing to the expected strength of domestic markets like China with large passenger numbers and shorter distances.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, commented: “I am always optimistic about aviation. We are in the deepest and gravest crisis in our history. But the rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedom to fly in the months ahead. And when that happens, people are going to want to travel.